Financial Predictions Redux
This was first published on my old blog on 12-16-2008 but I wanted to put it in a more active place. I just want to drop a few predictions so I can point back to them when they happen.
One piece of trivia I have always loved is that Al Capone’s business card said he was a second hand furniture salesman. I thought that was silly because who buys second hand furniture. Well, I believe we are coming to a time where we will see a revival in this type of business, where we would rather buy used high quality goods than spend too much money on new cheap and disposable goods.
My parents were born into a family that had lived through the Great Depression and they, like many of their peers, have traits associated with people who lived through such a hard time. They hold onto everything; their cupboards are full of plastic containers that they use to store leftovers. Why spend money on Tupperware when it comes free with your margarine?
I think for real lasting change to take place our culture is going to have to go through a similar paradigm shift in how we live. I have found myself thinking about purging items from my home thinking that if I need them again I can buy them but it may be better to hold on to things and find a use for them than to spend the money.
I predict the return of second hand furniture stores, a reduction in eating out and many more habits associated with the “wartime” lifestyle. I would already encourage everyone to do such a thing in order to promote live more simply. Heather and I have looked at our life, but perhaps not deeply enough, in an effort to reduce our consumption and the waste we have in our life. We do this not only to improve our quality of life but to reduce our need for money so we may have the freedom associated with behind debt free.
I also predict the next bubble to burst will be the education bubble. For years the government has been throwing money at people to get a degree. A lot of people are over their head in debt with little or nothing to show for it. They are unable to get jobs that pay well enough to pay off their loans. When the government starts giving away money toward something it becomes quickly overpriced because the “free money” increases the demand. College education has become far to expensive.
Of course as the governtment continues to throw our money at an assortment of things watch for those costs to increase as well. Unless of course they cap the costs and then look for shortages. After all why would I go through all the trouble to become a doctor if the government will control how much I can make in the process?


I’ve said to friends in the past that education is definitely next. It’s so obvious — inflation goes up 3%, tuition goes up 12%. Not. Sustainable.